12/8/2023 0 Comments Iran breaking news nowHamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, when trying to justify the 7 October attack, cited offensive transgressions near the site of the revered al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, chronic Jewish settler violence and land-grabs in the West Bank, and the 16-year blockade of Gaza. Khamenei has always argued against a nuclear compromise, saying Iran should ignore US sanctions, become more self-sufficient, and look east. Meanwhile, the prospect of a revived nuclear arms control deal with the west has reduced appeal, even if one could be agreed. Iran’s increased belligerence also stems from strengthened ties with China and especially Russia, now a big arms customer. The Afghan and Iraq withdrawals, and the Syrian regime’s rehabilitation, reinforce the perception that the US is losing leverage, and losing interest, in the Middle East. Strategically speaking, the Biden administration’s preoccupation with Ukraine and tilt to Asia look like opportunities, when viewed from Tehran. Khamenei and Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s hardline president, sense weakness as they watch an Israel convulsed by Benjamin Netanyahu’s anti-democratic, hard-right policies. Like a man suspected of murder, Iran has previous form and a strong motive for wanting to take a swipe at Israel now – in addition, that is, to its fundamental objection to the Jewish state’s very existence. The idea that Tehran, which funds, trains and arms Hamas, was not aware of, and was not involved in planning Black Saturday’s large-scale operation is very hard to believe. Throughout the lengthy “shadow war” with Israel, Iran has typically operated at arm’s length, acting through proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen. Iran welcomed the attack – but denies involvement in it. Hamas insists it acted of its own volition. Specifically, it is claimed that Hamas members discussed their plan to mount simultaneous air, land and sea incursions into southern Israel with IRGC officers in Beirut on 2 October, five days before the attack – and were given the green light. Gen Esmail Ghaani, head of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds force with responsibility for extraterritorial clandestine military operations, is said to have repeatedly met Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Subsequent reports suggest senior Iranian officials were in close touch with Hamas in the run-up to the attack. The suspicion was they wanted to avoid full-on confrontation at that very fraught juncture. In the immediate aftermath of 7 October, US and Israeli officials were quick to say that there was no evidence, at present, to indicate Iran’s direct involvement. What is Iran’s plan, assuming it has one? What does it want? These questions hold the key to the war. Syria claims Israel bombed Damascus and Aleppo last week. In a further heightening of tensions, Israel is accusing Iran of deploying new weapons in or through Syria to create a second front. The West Bank is another potential flashpoint amid rising levels of violence in the past week. Israel is already fending off daily, limited Hezbollah cross-border attacks in the north, and is warning of the “destruction of Lebanon” if the militia joins Hamas’s war. It appears to be placing its militias on notice that new war fronts may soon open up. Iran undoubtedly views the additional deployment as an American escalation. This is what Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calls the “axis of resistance”. Iran is the “state actor” that controls and coordinates the “non-state actors” – Hamas and the militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza Tehran-affiliated militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen and the most powerful of them all, Lebanon’s Hezbollah (the “Party of God”).
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